So, Hallelujah, it's fixed. I looked at the tape path and any mechanical issues and I think rather than it being any one thing it was lots of little things that just needed to be cleaned and re-aligned. The biggest thing, I think, was messing with the pinch wheel. It had a ton of cruddy grease on the spindle so I cleaned all that up, as well as all the other wheels in the tape's path. Thanks for the encouragement to give all that stuff another go, it really paid off!
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